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We’re starting to see a few trends develop with certain NFL teams that can present wagering opportunities for astute bettors.
Not typical betting trends that speak of how ‘Team A’ performs against division rivals or as three-point favorite; those are easy to spot by and bettors alike.
These trends are more like habits that are continuously producing the same net result and in the right matchup can generate solid betting options.
– The most famous drop in Manhattan used to be the big apple on New Year’s Eve but now it’s the ones by Eli Manning’s receivers. The worst part is that they don’t just drop the ball; they usually tip it to a defensive back!
– The only QBs with more interceptions per attempt than Carson Palmer are Eli Manning (see above) and Brett Favre – the NFL’s all-time INT King. Cincinnati cannot be trusted.
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New York (-7.5) is hosting a Jacksonville team this week that have scored 79 points during a current three-game win streak, and sportsbook is giving us more than a TD?
Cincinnati visits one of the toughest secondaries in football and the Jets (-9) can’t wait to face a trigger happy QB like Palmer.
Early football picks can offer great value and the Jaguars and Jets are two plays worth considering.
After compiling a 40-37 straight-up record in five seasons with Minnesota, Brad Childress was fired this week after the Vikings were blown out by division rival Green Bay.
Leslie Frazier has become the second interim coach named in the past two weeks and Minnesota can only hope to enjoy the same success the Dallas Cowboys have enjoyed under interim coach Jason Garrett.
Dallas is 2-0 SU/ATS since making the change and they weren’t exactly nail biters, but it’s still an exception to the rule for how new coaches perform when taking over mid-season.
Only three coaches that were fired mid-season since 1978 have been in the midst of a winning season but for nearly all of the 42 interim coaches promoted during that span it’s been a struggle finding straight-up wins down the stretch.
- Interim head coaches are 4-11-1 ATS overall in their first game since 1998
When you consider Dallas’ wins, 33-20 at New York and 35-19 vs. Detroit, it’s no wonder the online sportsbooks have shaded the line for the Vikings-Redskins game in Week 12. But does that make it any less likely Frazier will fail?
- Interim head coaches are 2-10-1 ATS the past 12 years when not coming off a bye week
Frazier was in his fourth year as Vikings D-Co and will presumably maintain control of the defensive play-calling. Through stints with Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Philadelphia that was his niche so with nothing on the line, why change.
Oddsmakers have posted an opening line of Washington -1.5 with an Over/Under of 43.
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Some say the league didn’t come down hard enough on Denver head Coach, Josh McDaniels for his part in the Spygate II scandal but after watching the St. Louis Rams pummel the last place Broncos Sunday on their own turf, is there any more discipline required?
McDaniels is on the hot seat in Denver and after the success Jason Garrett (3-0 ATS) and Leslie Frazier (1-0 ATS) have experienced since taking over the head coaching jobs in Dallas and Minnesota, a change of scenery in the Rockies could be eminent.
Denver lost a close one to the Jets in Week 6 that they had every right to win. Since then, the only two highlights for the Broncos have been a 35-point scoring spree in the first-half against the Chiefs and 20 fourth quarter points against the Rams in Week 12.
set the betting odds for Denver and Kansas City this week at Chiefs (-7) but that line did not last through Arizona’s first fumble in the Monday Night Football game vs. San Francisco.
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Sportsbetting.com currently lists the Chiefs (-9) and picks on Kansas City at home this season have produced a 4-1 ATS record – that’s a profit of plus-2.9 units.
Kansas City’s veteran coaches will have learned from their mistakes of the last meeting but in this short turn-around situation between division rivals we predict a much lower scoring game than the 49-29 final in Week 10.
Sure, it’s a long way from now but file this for when sportsbooks begin to offer betting futures on the NFL Draft.
Patriots’ tight end Aaron Hernandez, the youngest player in the NFL, was drafted in the fourth round. As part of the new ‘No prima donna’ offense, the Patriots went after young TEs in the draft that they could turn into playmakers with an offensive package that reduces personnel changes.
Early draft prediction for 2011: TEs will be in high demand. It’s a copycat league and when sub-.500 teams see the kind of success Belichick has had they will be lining up to give it a shot next year.
Bet the “Over” 2.5 for ‘Number of TEs drafted first round.
Cleveland’s Peyton Hillis is the first Browns running back with 10 rush TDs since Kevin Mack in 1986. While this year’s edition will not be making an appearance in the AFC Championship game in January, they are a very attractive underdog bet in Week 13.
Miami allowed a whopping 128 rushing yards per game in its four games prior to the win at Oakland. The Dolphins are also just 1-4 SU at home this year.
